preparedness

College Alternatives (10/27/2012)

One of my favorite bloggers is James Altucher. He constantly harps on the lack of value currently presented by higher education. Sadly, many people miss what I believe is his key point: education debt is stupid unless you can pay it back. In our current society there is a mentality that you must have a degree to succeed in life and there are no other alternatives. I do not think this is true. More important, if a degree is sought and debt is incurred there should be a return on investment.

An example of a bad decision is a liberal arts major taking on $100k in debt a private school when the same education could be had at a public institution, in-state, for a fraction of the cost. Similarly, anyone attending a for-profit corporate university should seriously question the process. These schools exist only because the federal government has insured the repayment of their tuition fees and they feed on chuckleheads willing to get a shoddy degree with no understanding of the repayment process. If the schools themselves had to collect debt they would readily go out of business. If the students understood how bad these institutions are they would go out of business.

Considering the above I recently shared a conversation with my friend Hal Rice about college alternatives. We both have a plethora of children who will seek education. I have no plans, and believe no parent should have plans, to fund the education of my children. I am a believer in self-sufficiency and struggle to drive desire and appreciation. In our conversation I said the career advice I would give to my children is as follows (counting down) for the top 10 best jobs.

Before reading there are a few key points worth mentioning:

– Unless you are a Kennedy, no one gives a shit where you went to college when getting a job. They just want to see a degree

– Unless you went to an Ivy League school, again, no one gives a shit where you went to college

– If you are a professional (lawyer, doctor, engineer, etc) and have a license to practice then no one gives a shit where you went to college

– You should never take on any more debt than the one-half average starting salary of one year’s wages. You are a dumbass if you do

– Liberal Arts degrees are useless unless you want to be a teacher. Thus, if you spend more than $15k to get a liberal arts degree you are a chucklehead

– There is nothing wrong with a trade profession: carpentry, auto repair, air conditioning, etc. The key is to learn a skill the COULD be translated to other industries

– Most important, live life and focus on happiness

(10) Military career. As an NCO it is possible to find a job function to ultimately translate to private industry. Electronics training, aircraft repair, or aircraft approach systems come to my mind. After 25 years retirement will supplement a civilian career with benefits for life.

(9) Lawyer. Pick a fourth tier law school and pass the bar. Focus on a district attorney job first to get some experience and then go to work in a small town in a small practice. Connect with local CPAs and financial planners to do Wills and Trusts. Get to know the real estate people and manage property transactions. With some divorce and drunk driving clients and charging a reasonable rate this is a well-respected and affordable career.

(8) Computer Programmer. Tough competition from abroad for this career but high incomes provide an excellent return. Still in demand though but the challenge is to keep up with changing technology. Expertise in a particular industry can provide a career for life.

(7) Aircraft Repair. Tough but doable and not a bad life. Setup shop at the right airport and keep your license current you can have a career. This can be in general aviation or take someone to the airlines. Remember, the airplane does not fly if maintenance is not completed.

(6) Air Conditioning Repair. In the south (Florida, Texas, Arizona) this one is hard to beat. If it’s 100F outside people want their A/C fixed and you have them. A skilled person with some business savvy and customer service attention can build a nice local business.

(5) Pastor. OK, here is a special job and one that won’t make you rich, unless you are a televangelist. Everyone loves you. Generally you have benefits and a decent salary. You won’t be rich and have to work weekends. But, if you can write and like people this is a great career.

(4) Local Insurance Agent. Specifically, State Farm or Farm Bureau. Everyone in town loves this guy and he knows everyone. Join Kiwanis, Rotary, church, and knock on doors. Insurance is the gift that keeps giving and giving. If you sell a life policy there are residuals. Sell property and you get a small piece annually. It is hard to beat this job. No degree needed….

(3) Optometrist. Again, does insurance matter with these guys – no. Have you spent $500 on eye glass frames? If your glasses break are you going to wait until you have money to replace them? No, you have to see. Follow the orthodontist education route below.

(2)Veterinarian. My vet doesn’t take insurance, does yours? I dropped $200 on my “free cat” last week because he is the family pet. Follow the same path to education success for an Orthodontist.

(1) Orthodontist. I am now paying for braces and these guys are brutal. $5000 per mouth, no matter what. There is no negotiation, they are immune from insurance, they setup in any town in America, and appear to be recession proof. A public school will provide the basis to get into dental school and then go off-shore. Get a cheap education, come back for residency and get your license.

Opportunities

Opportunities confront all of us each day but too often the door is closed without ever stepping forward to take a chance. Writing this column my inspiration comes from concern for those I watch missing chances to take advantage of new paths in life. After many observations I have concluded there are two distinct reasons people reject opportunity: fear and inaction.

President Roosevelt said, the “Only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” and nothing sums up the reason opportunities are rejected than his infamous saying. When faced with a new challenge many people will create unfounded fears that prevent them from considering a change. For example, an elderly person may reject a free airline ticket to see her grandchildren for fear of dealing with unknown airports, but yet millions of travelers face that fear every travel day. Similarly, overcoming unemployment may be impossible for the fear of moving from established roots, but yet thousands migrate to locales like North Dakota and Nevada to save their families.

Second to fear is inaction and is best exemplified by Einstein’s famous quote, “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” I assert inaction is far easier than action. Thus, when faced with opportunity the effort to take action will succumb to the ease of inaction and the door to opportunity will close. By example a high school student may pass on a college application or a standard test due to the effort required and her laziness is then rewarded by the status quo. Likewise, a job opportunity may be passed because leaving a spouse in a current job is easier than searching for a new job when total income could increase.

Often it is easy to observe the opportunities friends and family miss, but impossible to realize when the same occurs personally. Daily I believe each of us are presented opportunities, some consequential and most trivial. The critical trait is to recognize when opportunity knocks and to, at a minimum, give consideration. Understanding fear and inaction as the obstacles to grasping opportunities helps right a course in our lives from status quo to prosperity and adventure.

My challenge to you this week is to assess every choice as a new opportunity and to understand how fear and inaction could contribute to saying no. Alternatively this week consider how facing fear and taking action could open doors normally closed. “Opportunities multiply as they are seized.” – Sun Tzu.

April 28, 2012 by admin preparedness sheep Stupid People

Pragmatic

Pragmatic (01/04/2012)

Taking my son to school recently I was listening to an interview on NPR with a spokesperson from Merriam-Webster dictionary. I have always loved the dictionary and can remember scouring the unabridged version when I was in school, searching for words I needed to learn and finding words of which I had never heard. Today, I never pick up a printed dictionary and instead relay on a digital search. Companies like Merriam-Webster benefit because in the digital world the company captures data about users, like the most common search. For 2011 Merriam-Webster reported the most searched word is “pragmatic.” Coincidentally, in conversation the day before the NPR piece I was commenting “I’m a doom and gloomer” when it comes to the economy, currencies, resources, or general outlook. My friend Katie quickly corrected me and said, “I don’t think you’re a doom and gloomer; your pragmatic.”

Like many of us looking for the meaning of the word pragmatic I cannot say I gave much thought to it before our economic downturn several years ago. In September 2007, I lost my job and found myself selling unneeded items, downsizing through multiple garage sales, and finally having to leave my friends and children in New Smynra Beach, Florida. I started reading, learning, and understanding government, money, commodities, food chains, and even media interpretation of events. Ultimately, this led to my opportunity to write weekly newspaper columns in several papers and publishing my book, Clearly Ambiguous.

Encouraged by personal change I started identifying trends and taking an umpire-like view of the world, “calling it like it is.” Specifically I remember a meeting with a group of realtors in spring 2008, part of a leads group I had formed, and the realtors commenting the housing market would return by the end of the year. I challenged their thoughts, stating it would be five to ten years before real estate made any return to the prior levels. Challenged, I stood my ground sharing statistics, facts, and observations. Recent data by the National Association of Realtors has reiterated the markets have been worse than reported and instead consistent with my assertions.

Each week I work hard to share events whether identifying infringements on our liberties, disputing economic optimism, or calling out the idiocy of our leaders’ decision making. My friend has accused me of being negative, another of living on the mountain too long and become radical. I think Katie got it right, I am “pragmatic.” prag•mat•ic (adj \prag-ˈma-tik\) 1: archaic a (1): BUSY (2): OFFICIOUS b: OPINIONATED. 2: relating to matters of fact or practical affairs often to the exclusion of intellectual or artistic matters : practical as opposed to idealistic.

January 4, 2012 by admin Depression Great Recession preparedness

Defending Yourself

Defending Yourself (06/22/2011)

I wrestled with the title and content of this column realizing I wanted to challenge thought processes. My context is asking, “When would you take up arms?” Recent Supreme Court rulings, at state level and the federal level have eroded 4th Amendment rights. These freedoms have been held sacred since the Bill of Rights passed and evolved from British tyranny and further back to feudal tyranny. Looking around I see this erosion becoming the norm, no longer the exception. Sadly, people who raise questions are now “domestic terrorists” or “troublemakers” harassed through detention, no-fly lists, and watch lists.

If you are pulled aside for additional screening at an airport and suddenly find yourself touched inappropriately by a TSA officer are you willing to yell “Stop!” Are you willing to kick and punch to defend your person? Are you willing to engage local law enforcement to file assault charges? What if you are an 18 year old girl attending your high school prom and security guards run a hand up your bare thigh under your dress? Would you be willing to complain, or more importantly Continue reading…

June 22, 2011 by admin Big Government Civil Rights Great Recession preparedness

What lifestyle changes would you make?

Check out this house. Is it worth it? No mortgage, living happy without the fear of a bank taking everything. Depending on where you have been in the last two years financially you may not understand the changes taking place in America.

The Greatest Depression is continuing in a rapid downward spiral with the plummeting value of home prices. Too many Americans have tied their fate to the future of their home. Since 2008 home prices have fallen 33%.

What is a house? How many people thought they were living the dream of a McMansion – 4000 square feet and a $4000/month mortgage?

I will continue on my 1.6 acres of rural countryside – chickens, woods, space, and simplicity. Life is easy when you have less.

June 7, 2011 by admin Depression Great Recession Peak Oil preparedness

My two cents…

The fed is between a rock and a hard place:

– no more QE: the stock market will crash, no easy credit, brakes on economy
– continue QE: rising inflation, real wages dropping, angry voters.

Furthermore the Administration is not supposed to be part of the monetary policy but Obama will politically pay for the decision either way.

What should we do:
– keep your gas tanks full (I filled the RV in January, $2.90/gallon, today driving home it is $3.80/gallon — $60 savings
– keep your pantry full — anything you buy today is cheaper than tomorrow
– understand the stock market is like going to Vegas. Best trading option is probably futures contracts
– pay down debt that costs more than 6%-8% to improve cash flow. Anything else is about to become cheap money. Free up the expensive money to invest in CD’s, dividend paying accounts when interest rates go back to 10-12-14%
– Remember, as interest rates go up bond prices go down. why do you think PIMCO sold ALL of their treasury bonds?
– Remember the government has $4 trillion in short-term treasuries coming due in the next 18 months

April 17, 2011 by admin Capitalism Depression Great Recession preparedness

Destroying Futures

Imagine earning $30,000 (3 Trillion) per year but having bills and obligations of $42,000 (4.2 Trillion) per year. Additionally, let’s assume you have a spouse and two children with wants and desires. With your income falling short you would know radical changes in your lifestyle must be made and if you are a Dave Ramsey fan you know every expenditure would have to be considered and nearly one-fourth must be cut. However, the kids will complain if you cut their movies, food, school activities, clothes and even iTunes budget (government spending). Your spouse does not want to discuss the issue because she feels the problem will go away, as if by magic, and there is no reason to upset the kids (political debate).

However, there is an answer: debt. Of course, a loan to create a source of “income” can be created (deficit spending). For instance, a second mortgage on your home could fund the shortfall and maybe allow you to buy a new big-screen television or car, a hugely popular decision at home. But this only works for a while, quickly you discover the interest only payments add another $500 per month to your obligations, thus you are now using the debt taken on to pay for the original shortfall and the new debt (treasury auctions)! You have looked for ways to increase income, but the economy isn’t growing and no one is hiring (tax revenue). Your anxiety increases because you know this cannot keep going and bankruptcy may be the only way out.

One day however, your neighbor Fred (Federal Reserve) knocks on your door and explains his multi-level marketing business is doing well and as long as he keeps getting new people involved his success will grow and he would like to help you. Hesitantly you agree to his proposal: he will paper over your debt (purchase bonds), and you can repay him in 30-years. Thoughtfully you think his proposed near zero interest rate and 30-year offer has to work. At age 50 it is even unlikely you will be here in 30 years to deal with the repercussions. With a wink, Fred explains your children will assume the entire debt, with interest. After contemplation you feel it is better to risk your children’s future than to reign in your lifestyle today, and hurt their feelings, and since they do not get an opinion (can’t vote) they will never know. Like a deal with the devil, you know there is no way out.

March 4, 2011 by admin Capitalism Depression Great Recession preparedness taxes

Bob Cratchit

My Christmas week column

Without much thought most of us can recite the plot of Dicken’s “A Christmas Carol” and the various scenes of ghostly Jacob Marley torturing the soul of Ebenezer Scrooge. Dicken’s indictment of 19th century capitalism is just as accurate 167 years after publication. Although in denial, most Americans have more in common with the hurting Bob Cratchit and family than the wealthy, out of touch Ebenezer Scrooge this Christmas.

I challenge you to consider how your Christmas four years ago compares to this year and what concerns are facing you, your family, friends, and our country. Christmas 2006 we had never heard of candidate Barak Obama, the national debt was 8.5 trillion versus 14 trillion today, 258 U.S. soldiers had died in Afghanistan versus 1437 total through today, and unemployment was 4.6% compared to the current 9.8% with over 8 million jobs lost in just the last two years. Personally, Christmas 2006 was incredible as my house was “worth” far more than I had paid, and I was a believer in the infinitely upward movement of American economic growth. Two years of unemployment wiped out my entire career’s worth of wealth building. Regardless of your opinion of the financial crisis, our political parties, or presidential administrations this Christmas is different.

Last week at Wal-Mart my wife spoke to a cashier who had her heat fail and was using space heaters to warm her home. With their 3-year old sharing a bed to stay warm she said the house dropped to the same temperature as outdoors, 15oF. I assert most of us are like Bob Cratchit, just surviving to stay warm and struggling to feed our families. The debt crazed, home equity financed Christmas is now the Ghost of Christmas Past. This year the Ghost of Christ Present has brought prudence, fear, and common sense upon America. State employees, teachers, and educated engineers and managers wonder if tomorrow will bring a pink slip or another week of toiling hours just to keep a job, unappreciated by the likes of Scrooge. Bankers however will bask with overgrown golden turkeys, excesses of food and thermostats set at 74 oF unlike 60 oF for the common folk. And what about the third specter? The Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come will more than likely deliver further pain and woe to already hurting families. “When people lose everything and they have nothing to lose, they lose it.” – Gerald Celente

December 27, 2010 by admin Depression Great Recession preparedness

Haiti and New Orleans

Haiti and New Orleans

When I was 10 years old my family moved from Minnesota to California. The move was huge, but it caused me anxiety because I had watched television shows predicting the next big earthquake and California falling into the Pacific Ocean. Of course, that was more than 30 years ago, and California remains part of the continental United States. However, the residents of California live with the threat of earthquakes every day. Unlike any other natural disaster phenomena, I would conjecture an earthquake is the worst threat to face. Contrastingly, in Florida we have days, up to a week, to prepare for a hurricane. Tornadoes come with minutes of warning, or hours if paying attention to conditions. Even mudslides, floods, and fires provide a reasonable warning. An earthquake, on the other hand, comes any time and with no warning. If you live in California though, you know the threat exists. Living in Haiti on the other hand is a place with minimal earthquake risk.

Facing disaster is reasonable when you know what threat exists, or more importantly have time to prepare. When Katrina struck New Orleans warnings were issued ahead of time, the citizens had a choice to stay or leave. Of course, a weather forecast is never perfect, but with Katrina the severity of potential of the storm obviously loomed. In contrast, Haiti was struck by the worst earthquake in 200 years with no warning, and unlike California, no predisposition for the expectation of earthquakes. It appears Haiti’s government and communications infrastructure collapsed, not unlike the local resources of New Orleans and Louisiana. Immediately, Haiti reached out to its neighbors to seek help, and so did New Orleans. In both instances, massive federal aid packages were mobilized to assist.

News coverage of the events in Haiti has been compassionate and focused on the successes of rescue. In South Florida the media is providing local stories of airports launching relief, medical teams departing, and families reuniting. It is nearly impossible to turn on the television without a reference to the current situation in Haiti and how the citizens of the world are reaching out to their neighbors. Unfortunately, last week there was troubling coverage of gangs, violence, and looting. I found the similarities to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans striking in this regard. Sadly, there are people who disregard the brotherhood of man and instead take advantage of disaster and troubling times. Amplifying this situation is sensationalism by the press of the minority doing so. Bothersome as these situations are though, we should not be left with images of theft and violence, but focus on the success of rescue and efforts to help those in need.

However, the real story remains at the ground level, not from the massive organized efforts. The individual rescues, and thousands of examples of neighbor helping neighbor. The real survivors in Haiti are those helping, not seeking assistance or depending on a foreign nation to save the day. The real survivors understand their fate is up to them and do not blame anyone for the earthquake that struck. In contrast, the residents of New Orleans shunned personal responsibility, looked to blame others, and waited for someone to save them. Haiti’s earthquake is going to forever change the look of neighboring nations as its own people realize it will take decades to recover. As we watch from afar, I challenge you to examine your own preparedness for unforeseen disasters, and remind you to believe in the goodness of people helping people.

January 31, 2010 by admin Health care preparedness Stupid People

Crisis Preparation

Crisis Preparation

I have read a lot about preparation for TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) lately. However, I think there are other issues of greater concern than that which one must consider. I am repeating, changing, and re-writing some of what I have read. But, I go back to the root of what I have always known; preparation is about facing a threat. A threat can be measured three: probability of occurrence, intensity of destruction, and duration. A matrix should be made to consider the likelihood of a threat, where you might be during the occurrence, and what preparations should be made.

Supplies need consideration next. Preparation for supplies can be broken into several categories. Once the categories are identified a second stage of analysis must be completed – do you require mobility or will this preparation be to hunker down and stay in one location?

I feel most people fail to make any preparations in their lives because it is overwhelming to analyze “what-if” scenarios and planning around them. At the same time, ridicule of preparations is easy due to the old stereotypes of bomb-shelter fanatics, in the woods survivalists, and hippies living in communes off the grid. Ironically, these are the people that the unprepared will flee to.

Living in New Smyrna Beach, Florida I constantly faced a hurricane threat, but yet, like many friends and neighbors, brushed off this threat. I felt I could go to Wal-Mart, Lowes, or Home Depot and retrieve what I needed on demand. Although not as destructive as a ground-zero events like Katrina I faced three hurricanes in six weeks time. We faced a long duration of inconvenience – no credit card machines, gasoline shortages, lack of groceries, building materials shortages, and no ice. I had friends without electricity for 10 days. I could not locate a chainsaw chain to remove and cut trees. There was no ice available to keep food safe because there was no electricity. Gas stations were closed due to lack of electricity, the pumps would not work and they had no credit card machines. All of the foods spoiled in the grocery store meat and frozen sections. Thus, they were forced to close to clean up their stores and no groceries were available. This was a modern crisis of long duration.

Events like Katrina, 9/11, the Northridge earthquake, and spring floods make headlines. However, watching a crisis on the evening news is entirely different than living through it. One side of 9/11 often forgotten was the travelers stranded away from home – if you had boarded a plane on 9/10/2001 and traveled across the country for business you suddenly found yourself stranded without a way to return home. There was a sense of suspicion in the country and finding yourself stuck as an outsider with only business clothes to wear could create problems. Fortunately, the banking system stayed intact and credit card machines were not shut off. Had the financial industry been questioned, cash would have been required just to eat, pay hotel bills, and get new clothing. In this case it was not a significant event for those away from New York but an event of extreme inconvenience. Again, even telecommunications worked, but it is not hard to imagine the government shutting telecom to prevent communications among terrorists. In this case contacting family would not have been feasible, lending to panic among those stranded away from home.

October 21, 2009 by admin Depression Great Recession preparedness Stupid People